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Clearing skies tonight, a wet weekend ahead

Friday: Mostly cloudy skies, turning overcast late. Winds: SSE 4-8 mph, High: 47 (44-50)

Friday night: Cloudy with a 80% chance of rain, fairly steady at times, beginning after midnight. Higher elevations could see snow mix in. Winds: ESE 5-10 mph, Low: 37 (35-39)

Saturday: Cloudy with a 100% chance of rain. Higher elevations could see snow mixing in. High: 43, Low: 38

Forecast Discussion

The focus in this forecast remains on the storm coming this weekend. We’ll see a brief dry day tomorrow, but the quiet conditions don’t last long at all. Skies will go from mostly cloudy to overcast tomorrow evening, as the coastal storm approaches. Model trends are continuing to lean more and more in favor of one another, increasing confidence for this storm’s track and impacts. All signs point to this storm continuing to hug the coast as it passes Friday night through Saturday. The atmosphere will be chilly, but not cold enough to warrant snow mixing in, except at select higher elevations in the Catskills. With plenty of available moisture and supporting dynamics, rain will begin after midnight Friday night ad continue well into Saturday night.

An upper level trough helping the coastal storm along will stay over the Northeast, helping push in another low from the Great Lakes for Sunday. Rain won’t be as steady or widespread with this system, but expect the entire weekend to be a wet one as showers continue into Monday. Rain totals from this weekend will range from 1-2 inches across the board. No major flooding issues are expected, but with a lack of sunlight and evaporation this time of year, some ponding in low lying areas is possible.

Activity begins to wane behind these systems into next week, with lingering showers Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday will be the first completely dry day in some time, and wouldn’t you know it, another front will be approaching for next Thursday. All the while, temperatures will continue to remain below average.

Damon Matson

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