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Staying mostly dry tonight, but showers likely return tomorrow

Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy. Small chance of a passing shower or two. Chance of rain is 20%. Wind: Light Low: 56-63

Tuesday: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. 40% chance of showers, especially in the afternoon and evening. Isolated thunder possible. Wind: Light North High: 72-77

Tuesday Night: 30% chance of a few showers. Wind: Light E/SE Low: 58-64

Forecast Discussion:

A stationary front in the vicinity of the Twin Tiers is going to keep some uncertainty in the rain chances over the next few days. Any fluctuations in the location of the front will impart changes in the precipitation chances.

The chance of showers tonight is around 20%. We anticipate long dry periods with partly to mostly cloudy skies and lows staying in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Tuesday looks to bring a varying chance of rain from north to south across the Tiers. We’re keeping a 40% chance of showers in NY, but will increase that chance to 70% south of Binghamton. The higher chance of rain coincides with the expected location of the stationary front. Rain chances will be highest along, and mainly south of, the front. Winds remain light out of the north. Highs stay in the 70s.

Wednesday is also unsettled. A low pressure center will develop in the Midwest Wednesday and a warm front should nudge into the area way out ahead of it. This will keep muggy weather and a chance of showers or thunderstorms in the forecast. The chance of precipitation is 40%.

By Thursday, the aforementioned low pressure will bring the highest chance of rain to the area as it slides through Ohio and into Pennsylvania on its way to the coast for Friday. Some heavy rain could develop in a very humid air mass inside the warm sector of the storm. This will need to be monitored. Some storms could develop, and any storm that does develop could be strong given the forecast instability and wind field aloft. Highs remain in the mid 70s. This storm pushes away Friday and quiet weather settles in.

Friday brings less humid conditions with a sun and cloud mix. Both weekend days look pleasant with highs in the low to mid 70s under partly cloudy skies. A chance of showers could return Monday with highs staying in the mid 70s. The chance of rain Monday is 30%.

Caitlin Westerholm

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