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Rain showers arrive first, wintry mess Monday night into Tuesday

Veterans Day: Cloudy with a 40% chance of scattered rain showers, mixed with snow showers to the north. Winds: L&V, High: 40 (35-44)

Monday night: Cloudy with a 90% chance of rain, turning to sleet and freezing rain in the evening/early overnight, then snow the rest of the night. Winds: SE to NW 5-10 mph, Low: 26 (20-29)

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy and cold with a 40% chance of lake effect snow showers. High: 28, Low: 11

Forecast Discussion

Agreement has certainly been reached by the models in regards to tomorrow’s storm, as it’s going to be a messy one, but not extremely high impact. Precipitation timing is still earlier, as rain showers will continue to be around Monday morning. These will continue into the afternoon, with most snowfall staying just north of us. The reason for this is the center of the low should develop near Pittsburgh, and then slide directly overhead into New England Monday night. A surge of warm air will push ahead of the low, keeping us warm enough for just rain into Monday evening. As the storm departs, colder air starts to mix in, and this will create a few hour window of sleet and freezing rain into the evening and early overnight.

From there, we transition to all snow Monday night and lasting into Tuesday morning. No major ice accumulations are expected, but things will get slick. Snow accumulations for most will be minimal, from 0-3”. Extreme northern Cortland, Chenango, and Otsego Counties will be closer to the heavier snow bands and will be closer to the 3-6” range. We’ll continue to monitor these forecasted totals.

The coldest air of the season fills in with lake effect snow showers Tuesday and Wednesday, with records likely to be broken. Quiet weather with temperatures warming back closer to average will be the play late week into next weekend.

Damon Matson

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