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Dry start to the weekend but we’re watching severe storm potential and Isaias closely

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Saturday: Sun early. High clouds increase through the day. Warm. Wind: S 3-7 High: 80-85  

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy and turning muggy. 30% chance of showers or a few storms. Wind: SE 4-9 Low: 63-69 

Sunday: 60% chance of occasional, scattered showers and storms. Any storms could be strong to severe. There is a small risk of a tornado in any severe storms. Please be weather aware. Wind: SE->S 7-14G20 High: 80-85

Forecast Discussion: 
Saturday starts with sunshine but high clouds should increase through the day with highs in the low to mid 80s. A warm front lifts north through the area Saturday night and increases humidity and brings a chance of some showers or storms. It will turn muggy overnight and by Sunday morning expect a thick, muggy air mass. Overnight lows Saturday stay in the 60s. 

A surface low moves out of the Ohio Valley Sunday. It lifts over Lake Erie into Ontario Canada. The heaviest rain is expected to stay well to our west, but we will be quite unstable and unsettled through the day in the very humid air mass. The chance of occasional showers and some storms is 60%. Due to some strong winds aloft, there could be some gusty to severe storms. We will monitor and update you on the severe outlook. The SPC has our area in a MARGINAL risk of severe weather. This is the lowest risk. Highs Sunday will be in the low to mid 80s. 

Monday stay unsettled with a few showers possible. Highs stay around 81. Next Tuesday Isaias will be moving up the East Coast. The most significant rain from it is expected to stay well southeast of the area. Should the storm track move west a bit it could change the rainfall forecast for our area. The NHC’s Cone of Uncertainty has already been nudged a bit west today and now includes the Catskills and Poconos. Please be Weather Aware early next week as we track the storm for you. Heavy rain can occur well ahead of a Tropical system so Monday needs to be watched as well. The chance of rain is 60% 

Wednesday could see a few residual showers with highs in the mid 70s. The chance of rain is 30%. Next Thursday and Friday are showing mainly dry with highs in the upper 70s. 

Howard Manges

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