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Tracking Sunday’s severe storm potential and Isaias

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Sunday: Mostly cloudy and humid. 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Any storms that develop could be strong to severe. Wind: SE 10-14 mph. High: 83 (80-85)

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy. 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Wind: S 6-10 mph. Low: 63 (60-67)

Monday: Mostly cloudy. 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Wind: W 4-8 mph. High: 80 (78-83)

Forecast Discussion

A muggy air mass sticks with us through Sunday as an area of low pressure tracks to the west of New York. This air mass is going to keep us a little bit unsettled throughout the day. The chance for precipitation is 40%, but any storms that do develop throughout the day could be strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded our area to a SLIGHT risk for severe weather tomorrow. This is a 2 out of 5 on the scale, which means we could see scattered severe weather tomorrow. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall seem to be the main threats right now. The tornado threat for tomorrow is low, but not zero. Flash flooding and hail threats also remain low. Highs on Sunday will be in the low to mid 80s.

Monday remains unsettled with a few showers and thunderstorms possible with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. By next Tuesday, Isaias will be moving up the East Coast. The National Hurricane Center's cone of uncertainty has nudged slightly east today, now only including a very small portion of our viewing area. A little shift east or west from Isaias in the next few days will change the rainfall forecast for us. As of right now, we're not seeing any major concerns with any serious problems in our area. We are expected at least some rainfall from Isaias, but we will continue to monitor the storm very closely in the coming days for any changes.

We could see a few left over showers on Wednesday. The chance for rain is 30%. The end of next week and start of next weekend looks mainly dry with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Caitlin Westerholm

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