Strong storm potential back in the forecast again

Tonight: Some high clouds and clear sky mixed. Patchy fog is possible. Wind: Light to calm Low: 53-60

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, hot and humid. Heat index as high as 91. Wind: SW 3-8 High: 85-90

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, muggy and mild. Wind: S 2-7 Low: 63-69

Forecast Discussion:

High pressure continues to dominate our weather and will keep quiet weather in the forecast tonight and through Wednesday. The ridge of high pressure breaks down and a cold front approaches with precipitation chances Thursday.

Patchy valley fog is possible tonight under a high cloud and clear sky mix. Lows range in the 50s to around 60. Sunshine reigns Wednesday early, with some late day clouds possible. It will turn muggy once again and highs will climb well into the 80s. Factor in the humidity and the heat index could be in the low 90s in the warmest locations. Wednesday night remains warm and muggy with lows staying well into the 60s.

A cold front later Thursday brings an 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms with highs around 80. There is uncertainty in the timing of the front, but it does appear the chance of rain will be highest later in the day. We’ll have to watch any thunderstorms that may develop as well. A trough of low pressure approaches later in the day and increases the winds aloft. The increased winds could turn the atmosphere supportive of a few strong to severe storms. The big question is how much sun will we see? More sun would increase the instability and strong storm chances. More clouds would likely lower the severe chances. The SPC has put our area in a MARGINAL risk for severe storms for the day. MARGINAL is the lowest risk on the severe risk scale with any severe storm coverage likely limited to ISOLATED.

The cold front moves eastward Friday, but some showers could linger into Friday depending on how fast, or slow, the front moves east of the area. The chance of rain Friday is 30%. The atmosphere looks capped so thunderstorms are not likely.

Quiet weather returns next Saturday under a sun and cloud mix. Highs remain around 80. Next Sunday brings partly sunny skies and we’re keeping the day dry. Highs will be around 80. Next Monday looks decent with highs around 82. By next Tuesday the chance of rain is 20% under partial sunshine. Highs stay in the low 80s.

Storm-Track-12
Howard Manges

Howard Manges

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